Buy, Sell, and What the Hell? - 1st Edition

Buy, Sell, and What the Hell?

by

The Arrogant Puck

Hey --listen up hosers!

In my last article I talked about how Ladies love the PIMs. Well, I know what else they like and you ain't got it. But there is hope out there for you fantasy hockey geeks. And let's take the gloves off right now and get this straight, you are a geek. The world will be a better place once you accept this well known fact. Trust me. Now that we've done that little bit of hand holding and tear jerking - let's get on with the show. Even though you'll never be an outlaw biker, there is something you can bring to the table to land the hot chicks - based on the highly scientific Ladder Theory - that thing is cold hard cash. That's right, more than dope smokin, grease laden, biker gang members and rockstar rebels - chicks dig the dough. And one of best ways a lowly geek like you can get it, is to learn how to buy low and sell high. Now, I don't want you flushing your 401(k)s testing out a theory. So it is best to set your sights a little lower and learn the trade by testing it out on something like fantasy hockey. Just don't EVER tell her you're into this sort of thing - not until you've knocked her up and it is too late for her to bail. Unless of course you've found a hotter chick, then you can certainly tell the ugly one all about your fantasy hockey habit.

So I'm launching the first article of Buy, Sell, and What the Hell?
Since you can't sell high in redraft leagues over the summer, here's a list of players for the super geeks that are in keeper leagues and looking for some trading action now.

BUY

Jaromir Jagr (RW) NY Rangers - He's old and recovering from shoulder surgery from last year. But he really turned his game on near the end of the season and into the playoffs. The knock on Jagr is that no one thinks he cares. But after this year's playoff highway robbery, he's pissed as hell and not going to take it anymore. You think Jagr put up great numbers in the past, wait until you see what he can do now that he gives a damn. There's always a risk of a groiner here and there, but next season could be his best yet - certainly worth the risk. Just don't tell the guy you're snagging him from all of this, try to highlight is age, apathy, and injury history. (BUY LOW - now is the time to strike, before Nylander re-signs and the preseason hype begins)

Josh Harding (G) Minnesota: Chances are, you're in a league where no one has this guy. But if they do, now is the time to strike and get him for nothing. With the Backstrom hype in full swing, Josh's value is at an all time low. But this kid is the real deal, look at his NHL stats. All he does is post a shutout every other game! The only reason he's not signing a large lucractive contract this year is because of a minor groin pull last summer which opened up a spot for Backstrom to sneak into the backup position. If you can get him and have the room to hold him, he will reward you heavily in the future - this kid could be the next Patrick Roy, I kid you not. (BUY LOW or DRAFT him late)

Wade Redden (Def) Ottawa: This one is risky, I'll say that upfront. If Ottawa goes all the way, I'm not sure I want Redden because I would fear the post Stanley Cup slump. But, can his stats get any worse? Probably not, so his value base level is set. Try to grab him if you can, but don't pay too much. His stats should rebound next year, now that he has adjusted to his enormous salary and gotten rid of the injury bug. (BUY LOW)

SELL

Chris Drury (Center) Buffalo: The hype machine is in full gear - he's clutch my friends. But, as I'm sure you're all to well aware of, the real life does not always translate into fantasy. Now is the time to strike, Drury will never have more fantasy value based on hype than he does right now. Reasons to sell: he's Buffalo's main shutdown center - you're not going to get many good stats from that and he's a Center - the most abundant position in the draft and on the wire. So buddy up with the Buffalo Nuts in your league (we all have them, the bandwagon has never been bigger) and try to extract the highest price you can. (SELL HIGH - Drury has more hype than a beach has sand. Sell now.)

Vincent Lecavalier (Center) Tampa Bay: I know what your thinking, What?! After scoring 52 goals and 56 Assists you want me to sell this bugger? Well, don't just go sell him for a bag of pucks and a vegan sandwich. But, if you can sell him for the right price, it will be well worth it. Look, Vinny will never be worth more than he is right now after this season. He's young, his future is brighter than ever, BUT he's stuck in Tampa Bay who will always have cap problems AND he's a feakin center. So, if you can trade for similar stats at wing (think Heatley, Ovechkin) then you should do it without hesitation. Trades I'd look for: Zetterberg + Avery, Gaborik + Jokinen. Look over your league and try to find the perfect sucker. Don't get me wrong, Vinny has almost perfect stats and he has balanced scoring (equal Goals and assists) but he is a center. Almost 99% of the up and coming studs will be at the Center position - it is one of the flaws in fantasy hockey, so use it to your advantage. (SELL HIGH - he'll never have more value, especially in keeper leagues. Sell him only if you can get equal value at the wing, or more than equal value. Obviously if you're a loser that plays in a league without positions (C, LW, RW, D, G) then this doesn't pertain to you and I have another piece of advice, upgrade to a better league that does have all of the positions in hockey and you better include PIMS!)

Patrick Marleau (Center) SJS : Not everyone is biased like I am against centers. Let's hope for our sake, that no one does the math on this thing - because you can't argue with stats - the center position is the deepest. So always sell these guys when their value has peaked. Patty surprised everyone with his performance this year and his stats look good on paper: 32 goals, 46 assists. But he doesn't shoot the puck enough and he is too soft, won't get you many PIMs. I'm here to tell you that you can do better. So work the price and get the most you can, he's young and his value will never be better than it is right now. (SELL HIGH)

WHAT THE HELL?

Martin Havlat (LW/RW) Chicago - It is kind of late to sell high on this character. You lost out big time, thinking his 2 pts/game average was no fluke. Well, don't repeat that mistake again. Havlat is a jumpy horse - he's going to fly out of the gate again this year. He's all Chicago has and he's going to kick it into a different gear this next season. But don't be a fool again, let the pattern be your guide. For you super nerds, Havlat's value always follows a sine wave. Last fall he peaked, fell into the gutter, moved up again, and now he's near the bottom all over again. If you have him, wait to sell. I would say about one month into the season will be the perfect time to sell high on him. This season you probably could have snagged Heatley or Zetterberg who were both slumping when Havlat was the brightest star in the game. It won't last - he's going to break a hip, get a suspenion, tear a groin, or become infected with some unknown disease. The dude just has bad karma. So if you're stuck with him now, hang on tight and try to get the most you can after the first month in. Now, if you don't have him, and you can trade to get him for next to nothing, then do it. But only for the short term trade, nothing long term. This cycle should continue indefintiely. Sell high on him in the fall, then rebuy later in the season when is value is in the gutter. (VERDICT - what happend Mach 09, was it the number change? No, just bad karma. Use it to your advantage.)

So, go to work on these and if you find some fantasy success, you can take these principles to the bank and increase your value on the ladder. All in good time, all in good time.

Good bye for now,

The Arrogant Puck has left the arena.