Joe Thornton has posted back to back 90 assist season. So, that means someone is getting a load of goals in San Jose. Throw in another 46 assists from Patrick Marleau with 32 goals and thats a nice 1-2 punch down the middle.
However, they are the only two reliable Sharks to consistently get a PPG or better average. Whats so bad about that? I hate drafting centers. Thornton is certainly a rare beast and is one of the top fantasy studs every year, outside of that I feel I can get Marleau's numbers from many other center options. If not from one center from a combo of centers and playing match ups. I will sound like a broken record always saying how low the value of a center is, but its worth repeating.
Will the real Cheechoo please stand up? Fantasy owners that got tired of Jonathan Cheechoo's inconsistent play and dropped or traded him before the Thornton trade two season's ago were kicking themselves. Players that drafted Cheechoo high this past season were kicking themselves as well. Cheechoo is a hard working player who's strength is getting to an open space and shooting. It makes no sense to anyone that watches him through one of his droughts. He still gets his shots, he still works hard or harder when slumping. That said, I have it on some inside information that he was hurt and tired to start last season and it took a long time for him to get his legs. He ended the year on a flourish rewarding H2H managers come their playoff time. It was likely too little too late for Roto pools and some managers that did not make the playoffs in H2H thanks to Cheechoo's slow start.
I think Cheechoo can get to 40 goals playing with Thornton next season and be a PPG player, even if Wilson juggles the lines some. However, if I am a keeper manager I am worried about Cheechoo's place on the SJS team. San Jose seems to have no lack of young talent and anyone they put with Thornton scores goals. Cheechoo vanishing in the playoffs back to back years could spell trouble for this streaky scorer. Especially with the development of Milan Michalek. If Cheechoo gets traded his days of being a 40G threat are gone without Thornton. Cheechoo had a career high 28 goals before playing with Thornton, so its easy to see him being a 30G guy even without Thornton. The trouble is Cheechoo is highly Dependant on his center to get him the puck, and few centers create the space and put the puck on the tape like Thornton.
Milan Michalek enjoyed a great season this year, and fantasy managers enjoyed it with him. With his size and skill its easy to see his numbers of 26 goals and 66 pts in 78 games going up. Michalek is the only San Jose player I would take(outside of big Joe in round 1) in round 2 or 3 of a keeper league. His age and unlimited upside make him a solid draft, even if it takes a couple years for him to turn into that 80 pt power forward.
You are probably reading this thinking, what about Matt Carle in a keeper? What about Joe Pavelski? I love Carle and he will be a PP stud for years but I hate using keeper spots on Dmen, especially young ones. The problem is Ron Wilson juggles and loses confidence in players too easy. I feel it hurts the fantasy value of too many SJS players. While there is nothing wrong with the numbers the SJS forwards and Dmen put up last year, many of the guys drafted after them in fantasy leagues scored more. Pavelski was a nice surprise last season and a welcome addition to many managers who nagged him early (never a bad idea to add any SJS FA in your fantasy pool who gets called up in real life) lets not fall in love with him too fast. Anyone remember the name Grant Stevenson? He was last years Pavelski and could not make the club this season. Pavelski might be the better player, but I am not sure he is good enough to hold down a regular line in San Jose that would make him fantasy worthy in your draft.
If you play in a deep league, and have long drafts then a player like Pavelski might be worth a shot. If you have an 18 man roster I would pass and only look at Michalek and Thornton. I also highlighted Mark Bell in my "Bounce Back" post. Don't be affraid to take this kid when he drops in your draft. He can get to 30 goals and 80 PIMs. Just don't overreach for him in case he falls short again.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
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