Saturday, May 19, 2007
Friday, May 18, 2007
Buried Alive!!!
"Buried Alive"
by
The Arrogant Puck
by
The Arrogant Puck
Hey -- Listen up Hosers!
You've all had it happen at some point, probably with the crew reading my column it happens more often than not. After a drought that eclipses the Sahara, you finally get a sniff at a hot looking beauty and someone like me with better looks and more brains comes along to snag her away from your grasp. That's right, the dreaded cock block. No action for you loser, the Arrogant Puck has arrived!
Well, the same phenomenon occurs in hockey all the time. It can happen because of a coach, a team philosophy, and sometimes just plain old bad luck. Sometimes it doesn't last long and other times it drags out like a perpetual cock block. You've got the talent, the speed, and the need - but someone better and older has your position in the NHL while you rot away in the minors. I like to call these all-talented gems, prospects that get Buried Alive! If you want to know how it feels, just ask Brodeur's backups over the last decade. And what about that poor guy backing up Kiprusoff? Oh, and the chump who was watching TV when that Dipietro contract was announced, who was that again?
Well, the same phenomenon occurs in hockey all the time. It can happen because of a coach, a team philosophy, and sometimes just plain old bad luck. Sometimes it doesn't last long and other times it drags out like a perpetual cock block. You've got the talent, the speed, and the need - but someone better and older has your position in the NHL while you rot away in the minors. I like to call these all-talented gems, prospects that get Buried Alive! If you want to know how it feels, just ask Brodeur's backups over the last decade. And what about that poor guy backing up Kiprusoff? Oh, and the chump who was watching TV when that Dipietro contract was announced, who was that again?
Being buried alive is not a pleasant trip and it happens more often than not to goaltenders. This happens for a number of reasons, but the biggest one has to do with math: most teams only field 1 or 2 starting goaltenders. So the supply far outweighs the demand. Teams try to con young and upcoming goaltenders that they require AHL "conditioning" before they can "mature" into elite goaltenders - but this is just a line of bullshit so they can get their draft picks to step inline while the veteran goaltenders fill the slot. We can't have a revolt in the minors over the cock block can we? NHL ice is where the action is and everyone wants a piece of it. Lucky for Cam Ward, he escaped being buried alive when Gerber was hurt and/or started to suck big time in nets.
Ok, so what does this mean in fantasy hockey? Plenty. Let's take a gent like Patrick O'Sullivan for example. He was Buried Alive in Houston because of a system in Minnesota - Lemaire just does not trust youngsters. But then bam, Minnesota traded for Pavol Demitra and O'Sullivan emerged from his grave - but then it appeared he was buried a second time because Crawford is a lame coach - but he wasn't buried for long! As soon as the Kings realized they had a Zero shot at making the playoffs, he emerged from the grave a second time.
Look - what I'm trying to get here is that when you draft youth in keeper leagues, look at how easy it is going to be for these kids to make it in the big leagues. For instance, Toews doesn't have much to get in his way when playing in Chicago. Does Chicago even have another player besides Havlat? Sure, these rookies that play in the NHL that first year are going to have terrible +/-'s (except for that rare gem Jordan Staal), but this is to be expected becuase they are rookies and are on teams that downright stink. However, their value in deep keeper leagues will far outweigh the negative +/- you'll see in their first few years and if you don't want to keep them, their will always be a trade market for youth in keeper leagues - always.
Ok, so what does this mean in fantasy hockey? Plenty. Let's take a gent like Patrick O'Sullivan for example. He was Buried Alive in Houston because of a system in Minnesota - Lemaire just does not trust youngsters. But then bam, Minnesota traded for Pavol Demitra and O'Sullivan emerged from his grave - but then it appeared he was buried a second time because Crawford is a lame coach - but he wasn't buried for long! As soon as the Kings realized they had a Zero shot at making the playoffs, he emerged from the grave a second time.
Look - what I'm trying to get here is that when you draft youth in keeper leagues, look at how easy it is going to be for these kids to make it in the big leagues. For instance, Toews doesn't have much to get in his way when playing in Chicago. Does Chicago even have another player besides Havlat? Sure, these rookies that play in the NHL that first year are going to have terrible +/-'s (except for that rare gem Jordan Staal), but this is to be expected becuase they are rookies and are on teams that downright stink. However, their value in deep keeper leagues will far outweigh the negative +/- you'll see in their first few years and if you don't want to keep them, their will always be a trade market for youth in keeper leagues - always.
So who is Buried Alive right now? Here's a short list I compiled while drinking a cold molson:
Josh Harding (G) Minnesota: He's got two strikes against him. First, Lemaire doesn't trust youth. Second, it appears The Wild are close to signing Backstrom and will have two All Star Goaltenders in Fernandez and Backstrom. If that doesn't spell cock block, nothing will. However, Harding does have the talent to succeed - if he can ever get through those two, either from a trade or an injury.
Al Montoya (G) New York Rangers: This kid must dream of hearing, 'The king is dead. Long live the King.' But word on the street is that King Henrik Lundqvist is about to sign a lengthy contract in NY and Montoya is about to be Buried Alive! Here's another all star caliber goalie that may never get a sniff because the King rules in NY. But who knows, maybe Lundqvist will get hurt or Montoya will be traded. Not much else is going to help him escape his grave in Hartford.
Bobby Ryan (RW) Anaheim: Poor ol' Bobby Ryan - he's Buried Alive because Anaheim is already fielding a very young, deep, and talented team. He'd be playing as a top six forward on many other teams, but not in Anaheim! Look for a wave of injuries or a few trades to spring him free. This kid needs a shovel!
Josh Harding (G) Minnesota: He's got two strikes against him. First, Lemaire doesn't trust youth. Second, it appears The Wild are close to signing Backstrom and will have two All Star Goaltenders in Fernandez and Backstrom. If that doesn't spell cock block, nothing will. However, Harding does have the talent to succeed - if he can ever get through those two, either from a trade or an injury.
Al Montoya (G) New York Rangers: This kid must dream of hearing, 'The king is dead. Long live the King.' But word on the street is that King Henrik Lundqvist is about to sign a lengthy contract in NY and Montoya is about to be Buried Alive! Here's another all star caliber goalie that may never get a sniff because the King rules in NY. But who knows, maybe Lundqvist will get hurt or Montoya will be traded. Not much else is going to help him escape his grave in Hartford.
Bobby Ryan (RW) Anaheim: Poor ol' Bobby Ryan - he's Buried Alive because Anaheim is already fielding a very young, deep, and talented team. He'd be playing as a top six forward on many other teams, but not in Anaheim! Look for a wave of injuries or a few trades to spring him free. This kid needs a shovel!
A Big Chunk of Buffalo: Guys like Stafford, Paille, Paetsch, MacArthur and Zagrapan are Buried Alive! Buffalo has such a deep team with speed and talent in the majors and minors it could be a long time before these guys get significant ice time and produce any worthwhile fantasy stats. Biron is thankful everyday he was able to escape his grave! Everyone one of these players is hoping Drury and Briere sign with another team just so they can get a sniff!
Rob Schremp (C) Edmonton: Now, a lot of times we can easily predict when a player is going to be Buried Alive. This is not so with someone like Schremp. He was the current rage and scoring like a madman not too long ago, but he was being Buried Alive for no known reason. Normally guys like this are stuck in the minors because the pro team has too much talent or contract they can't clear. But Edmonton has a huge void on offense to fill and why Schremp was never called upon back then is way beyond me. I guess we'll chalk this one up to mismanagement.
So, the moral of the story is to look at clubs that need help right now. These are the rookies that could emerge big time into scoring threats. If you're in a deep keeper league, I prefer to target these guys and avoid the ones that will be Buried Alive!!!!
Ok, that's it for now. Take off, eh!
The Arrogant Puck has left the Arena.
Team Cheat Sheet: New York Islanders
You know the rundown, fast list of players on the roster last season including UFA players. As always I will update as players move or sign. DND = Do Not Draft.
New York Islanders:
Asham, Arron RW - Match up guy for Pims/pts chance, no more. DND
Bates, Shawn C - No fantasy value of merit. DND
Bergeron, Marc-Andre D - Upside on this guy is big. Might be a sleeper snag. Solid D draft.
Bouchard, Joel D - No fantasy value. DND
Campoli, Chris D - Huge shot, struggles to find a place with the team. Decent draft Gamble if you need a Dman.
Comrie, Mike C - UPDATE Will get a chance at #1 minutes, and he is playing for a bigger contract next season. A decent option if you are short at center.
Dipietro, Rick G - Wang must have this guy in his keeper, he could be good for you too if he does not get hit in the head too much. Solid #1 goalie under a Nolan system.
Dubielewicz, Wade G - Looks to be the back up next year. Dipi owners take him for insurance.
Dunham, Mike G - Esche thinks Dunham is washed up. Don't let some good games fool you. DND
Fata, Drew D - Should see more time in the NHL next season. Keep an eye on him but DND
Fedotenko, Ruslan LW - UPDATE Big and skilled, he has never lived up to his potential. Maybe Nolan is the man to get it from him. Gamble pick late in deep pools.
Gervais, Bruno D - Not a lot of offense so far from this kid. DND
Guerin, Bill RW - UPDATE Age will not slow Guerin down due to his style of play. He will carry a lot of the offensive load on this team and will provide managers with plenty of goals and PIMs. Great pick in PIM leagues.
Hilbert, Andy C - Hard working but offers little to Fantasy owners. FA match up play.
Hunter, Trent RW - Worth a look in deep leagues. Could start to reach his peak.
Kozlov, Victor C/RW - I hate drafting centers as a rule, especially old ones. Take if desperate.
Martinek, Radek D - Career numbers last year despite only 43 games but only draft if you have no other options!
Meyer, Freddy D - Don't be the manager that gambles on this guy being your sleeper. DND
Okposo, Kyle RW - :UPDATE: Okposo plans to stay in college next season. He could join the NYI after next years college season is over:A wildly skilled player who draws many comparisons to Iginla . Solid farm team/keeper pick.
Park, Richard RW - We know what he does each year, and its no help. FA match up player at best.
Regier, Steve LW - Prospect not yet worth a look. LW on the Island is crowded right now. DND
Robitaille, Randy C - Update, Signed in Europe. DND
Rourke, Allan D - Don't be looking for fantasy impact here. DND
Satan, Miroslav RW - I sold my soul to this guy to get this site. SO DRAFT HIM #1!!! In all seriousness he can score goals and put up around 50-60 points.
Sillinger, Mike C/RW - You can count on decent numbers from Mike and for him to play on 5 teams next year. Middle to late rounder if you have a hole at center and younger options are gone.
Sim, Jon LW/RW - UPDATE Maybe in a game of the Sims he would have value. Not consistent enough for a roster spot. Keep an eye on him and add him for his hot streaks. DND
Tambellini, Jeff LW - Blazing speed, coach loves him. Keeper league Gold. Break out year next season.
Witt, Brendan D - Always a PIM monster he has little other fantasy values. Great for PIM leages with deep benches.
Thats it so far, Updates to follow as signings and fantasy radar catches names in the system.
New York Islanders:
Asham, Arron RW - Match up guy for Pims/pts chance, no more. DND
Bates, Shawn C - No fantasy value of merit. DND
Bergeron, Marc-Andre D - Upside on this guy is big. Might be a sleeper snag. Solid D draft.
Bouchard, Joel D - No fantasy value. DND
Campoli, Chris D - Huge shot, struggles to find a place with the team. Decent draft Gamble if you need a Dman.
Comrie, Mike C - UPDATE Will get a chance at #1 minutes, and he is playing for a bigger contract next season. A decent option if you are short at center.
Dipietro, Rick G - Wang must have this guy in his keeper, he could be good for you too if he does not get hit in the head too much. Solid #1 goalie under a Nolan system.
Dubielewicz, Wade G - Looks to be the back up next year. Dipi owners take him for insurance.
Dunham, Mike G - Esche thinks Dunham is washed up. Don't let some good games fool you. DND
Fata, Drew D - Should see more time in the NHL next season. Keep an eye on him but DND
Fedotenko, Ruslan LW - UPDATE Big and skilled, he has never lived up to his potential. Maybe Nolan is the man to get it from him. Gamble pick late in deep pools.
Gervais, Bruno D - Not a lot of offense so far from this kid. DND
Guerin, Bill RW - UPDATE Age will not slow Guerin down due to his style of play. He will carry a lot of the offensive load on this team and will provide managers with plenty of goals and PIMs. Great pick in PIM leagues.
Hilbert, Andy C - Hard working but offers little to Fantasy owners. FA match up play.
Hunter, Trent RW - Worth a look in deep leagues. Could start to reach his peak.
Kozlov, Victor C/RW - I hate drafting centers as a rule, especially old ones. Take if desperate.
Martinek, Radek D - Career numbers last year despite only 43 games but only draft if you have no other options!
Meyer, Freddy D - Don't be the manager that gambles on this guy being your sleeper. DND
Okposo, Kyle RW - :UPDATE: Okposo plans to stay in college next season. He could join the NYI after next years college season is over:A wildly skilled player who draws many comparisons to Iginla . Solid farm team/keeper pick.
Park, Richard RW - We know what he does each year, and its no help. FA match up player at best.
Regier, Steve LW - Prospect not yet worth a look. LW on the Island is crowded right now. DND
Robitaille, Randy C - Update, Signed in Europe. DND
Rourke, Allan D - Don't be looking for fantasy impact here. DND
Satan, Miroslav RW - I sold my soul to this guy to get this site. SO DRAFT HIM #1!!! In all seriousness he can score goals and put up around 50-60 points.
Sillinger, Mike C/RW - You can count on decent numbers from Mike and for him to play on 5 teams next year. Middle to late rounder if you have a hole at center and younger options are gone.
Sim, Jon LW/RW - UPDATE Maybe in a game of the Sims he would have value. Not consistent enough for a roster spot. Keep an eye on him and add him for his hot streaks. DND
Tambellini, Jeff LW - Blazing speed, coach loves him. Keeper league Gold. Break out year next season.
Witt, Brendan D - Always a PIM monster he has little other fantasy values. Great for PIM leages with deep benches.
Thats it so far, Updates to follow as signings and fantasy radar catches names in the system.
Don't forget the Coach!
When drafting we often look at career stats, what players did last season and who their line mates will/should be. Rarely do we think about the Coach a player has. The coach and staff decide the system and the role the player will play in that system.
I started a new keeper league last season, and one of our managers loaded up with Vancouver players in the draft. Granted we had 30 man rosters so not ever draft pick was going to be gold but you have to be aware of the real life teams system and give yourself the best chance for production. Vancouver made it clear they were going to play shut down hockey and anyone not named Sedin turned out to be a fantasy yawn (sorry Naslund). In turn this manager finished second to last only in front of a guy that didn't manage his team all year (I hate those guys!) How much better would this guy have been if he loaded up on Buffalo players instead?
Short handed point managers love those studs like Hossa, Justin Williams, Frolov, Alfredsson, and Heatly who not only put up great stats but play short handed too. Thus allowing them to contend in shp categorizes without playing PK scrubs. But lets turn back the clock, while Jacques Martin was coach in OTT he played a more conservative system, and Alfredsson and OTT were not shp monsters. Coaching changes in OTT and these guys now play an attacking PK and the shps flowed. OTT was not the shp monster it was the year before, but they were still better than most. Take Tampa Bay for example, the coach believes he has high paid horses and they need to play huge minutes and need to attack to be effective. In turn, Lecavalier and St. Louis are monsters short handed and in all aspects of offense. Now lets look at Pittsburgh. Malkin has always killed penalties and been a force to score short handed goals in his career, especially internationally. In PIT he didn't play the PK as much, and Crosby who would love to play the PK is not allowed because the coach fears him getting hurt. While guys like Armstrong and Talbot were huge collecting shps this season, imagine if Malkin and Sid were given the same freedom!
Now, because I used shps as an example, don't think thats what it is limited too. Think about teams power play personnel. What teams have three to five main guys that get the bulk of the power play time and what teams split it up pretty even? Everyone knows Jagr plays close to the full two minutes on a power play but managers still jumped on Prucha because of his stats the year before. How did that work out this season? Prucha saw limited power play time with Shanny and Jagr in town. You have to know the coaches and how they play and use their guys.
Lets look at Dave Lewis in Boston. Boyes and Bergeron struggled in his defensive system and from being limited on carrying the puck and creating plays. Production and +/- suffered. Place Boyes in STL under Andy Murray and he gets to play more open, gets to create and not be afraid of being disciplined for trying to make a play. Boyes's production goes up and his +/- improves.
Fantasy studs are fantasy studs, they will get their numbers no matter who the coach is or what the system is but not all studs play the PK. The second tier guys or new player learning the game are greatly impacted by them. Just be aware of what teams play open and what teams play trap hockey. Once you learn this you can take the reverse to see what goalies might be low risk!
Stay tuned, when the Draft dates come near I will do an update on each team and their system so you can be better prepared about what teams to target for depth players.
I started a new keeper league last season, and one of our managers loaded up with Vancouver players in the draft. Granted we had 30 man rosters so not ever draft pick was going to be gold but you have to be aware of the real life teams system and give yourself the best chance for production. Vancouver made it clear they were going to play shut down hockey and anyone not named Sedin turned out to be a fantasy yawn (sorry Naslund). In turn this manager finished second to last only in front of a guy that didn't manage his team all year (I hate those guys!) How much better would this guy have been if he loaded up on Buffalo players instead?
Short handed point managers love those studs like Hossa, Justin Williams, Frolov, Alfredsson, and Heatly who not only put up great stats but play short handed too. Thus allowing them to contend in shp categorizes without playing PK scrubs. But lets turn back the clock, while Jacques Martin was coach in OTT he played a more conservative system, and Alfredsson and OTT were not shp monsters. Coaching changes in OTT and these guys now play an attacking PK and the shps flowed. OTT was not the shp monster it was the year before, but they were still better than most. Take Tampa Bay for example, the coach believes he has high paid horses and they need to play huge minutes and need to attack to be effective. In turn, Lecavalier and St. Louis are monsters short handed and in all aspects of offense. Now lets look at Pittsburgh. Malkin has always killed penalties and been a force to score short handed goals in his career, especially internationally. In PIT he didn't play the PK as much, and Crosby who would love to play the PK is not allowed because the coach fears him getting hurt. While guys like Armstrong and Talbot were huge collecting shps this season, imagine if Malkin and Sid were given the same freedom!
Now, because I used shps as an example, don't think thats what it is limited too. Think about teams power play personnel. What teams have three to five main guys that get the bulk of the power play time and what teams split it up pretty even? Everyone knows Jagr plays close to the full two minutes on a power play but managers still jumped on Prucha because of his stats the year before. How did that work out this season? Prucha saw limited power play time with Shanny and Jagr in town. You have to know the coaches and how they play and use their guys.
Lets look at Dave Lewis in Boston. Boyes and Bergeron struggled in his defensive system and from being limited on carrying the puck and creating plays. Production and +/- suffered. Place Boyes in STL under Andy Murray and he gets to play more open, gets to create and not be afraid of being disciplined for trying to make a play. Boyes's production goes up and his +/- improves.
Fantasy studs are fantasy studs, they will get their numbers no matter who the coach is or what the system is but not all studs play the PK. The second tier guys or new player learning the game are greatly impacted by them. Just be aware of what teams play open and what teams play trap hockey. Once you learn this you can take the reverse to see what goalies might be low risk!
Stay tuned, when the Draft dates come near I will do an update on each team and their system so you can be better prepared about what teams to target for depth players.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Q&A by Contract
Q&A with The Arrogant Puck
Hey --listen up hosers!
Apparently the trained monkey that types up my material was bored the other day and found a clause in my contract whereby I am required to answer questions from the losers that read my columns. Honestly, I think this is a big waste of time. Most of you punks will probably agree once you read the level of intelligence behind most of these questions. Apparently many of you need help in other areas besides just fantasy hockey. But a contract is a contract, so here it goes. Anything to get that monkey off my back:
Q. Are you really Barry Melrose?
A. No. Also, I have never ever had a mullet. Enough of these questions about my identity, ok?
Q. What surprised you the most over the course of this regular season compared to last year.
A. The flips in +/- for some of the players. Players like Vanek and Heatley greatly improved their +/-, but players like Meszaros tanked it. Typically, when a players stays on the same team, we don't see such movement in these types of stats. This is a great sign for players who have Heatley and Vanek in keeper leagues. As for Meszaros, I think this season's stats are more of an indication of where he is at than last year. Last year, he was riding the coattails of the high powered Ottawa offense. This year, his +/- suffered when he was given more responsibility (with Chara gone).
Q. Have you always hated women?
A. On the contrary, I've always loved the women. No one loves them with quantity and quality quite like The Arrogant Puck.
Q. Were you always this way?
A. See what I was getting at about the level of intelligence of my readers? Listen, I don't even know what this question is trying to resolve. Have I always been The Arrogant Puck? Probably, in some form or some way. But it all started about the time I was born and the nurse said, "That little arrogant puck." I have a question for you, did your life peak out sometime around the 6th grade, loser?
Q. Hey, Arrogant Puck you suck! But while you are here, can you tell me what you think of Alfredson? I have him in a keeper league, but he's getting up there in age.
A. It doesn't take a genius to see he's taken his game to another level. So why are you asking me this? Look, he's an all category stud - scores goals, assists, great +/-, SOGS, PIMS, SHP - what more do you want? I say take him and keep him, but start looking to the future to replace him with your other roster spots. However, if you can get an offer that is too good to be true, then you must trade Alfredsson while his value is so high. But I'm an Ottawa fan, so I hate to move him.
Q. Hey Arrogant Puck, why didn't you call me? You promised you would?
A. Ummm, next question.
Q. Where did you come from? This fantasy hockey site just appeared out of no where.
A. No it didn't. The material on this site, especially mine, previously existed in the hearts and minds of all hockey fans - moreso in the charismatic and attractive fans than the ugly and unpopular ones. I'm just a hired lacky, talk to Mr Fantasy Solution for a better explanation.
Q. Who is the Brett Favre of hockey?
A. That's a tough call. As a fellow cheesehead, Favre is one of my idols. We need to narrow it down to players who put it on the line, have an enormous amount of fun while playing, and have a high level of talent. My first thought was Brett Hull, but he's retired. I think Ovechkin could get there very soon, if he's not there yet. Ovechkin has the talent and seems to really enjoy his time on the ice. Most guys play way too seriously. If Sidney Crosby wasn't such a blowharded punk, he'd be the likely candidate, but he's always trashing the refs and other players with that mouth.
Q. Who should i keep in my 12th spot of my keeper (12 teams, 12 keepers, standard scoring with PIMs because of the ladies!) - Pominville, Lupul, or Guerin?
A. I can tell you who not to keep: Lupul! This kid is toast. And if you still want to follow your affections for him, he should be available in your draft. I'm leaning towards the Mayor of Pominville - it is a bit of a risk, but if he duplicates his #'s next season, you won't be sorry.
Q. Did Veronica Mars get cancelled?
A. What? Are you even on the right site?
Q. Why is your way the best way?
A. Because the other ways all suck. I will have the monkey type up a column shortly why certain fantasy hockey rules are better than others.
Ok folks, I'd like to say it has been fun. Also, I'd like to say to keep the questions coming, but in reality I'd rather not do this again.
Goodbye for now, The Arrogant Puck has left the arena.
Hey --listen up hosers!
Apparently the trained monkey that types up my material was bored the other day and found a clause in my contract whereby I am required to answer questions from the losers that read my columns. Honestly, I think this is a big waste of time. Most of you punks will probably agree once you read the level of intelligence behind most of these questions. Apparently many of you need help in other areas besides just fantasy hockey. But a contract is a contract, so here it goes. Anything to get that monkey off my back:
Q. Are you really Barry Melrose?
A. No. Also, I have never ever had a mullet. Enough of these questions about my identity, ok?
Q. What surprised you the most over the course of this regular season compared to last year.
A. The flips in +/- for some of the players. Players like Vanek and Heatley greatly improved their +/-, but players like Meszaros tanked it. Typically, when a players stays on the same team, we don't see such movement in these types of stats. This is a great sign for players who have Heatley and Vanek in keeper leagues. As for Meszaros, I think this season's stats are more of an indication of where he is at than last year. Last year, he was riding the coattails of the high powered Ottawa offense. This year, his +/- suffered when he was given more responsibility (with Chara gone).
Q. Have you always hated women?
A. On the contrary, I've always loved the women. No one loves them with quantity and quality quite like The Arrogant Puck.
Q. Were you always this way?
A. See what I was getting at about the level of intelligence of my readers? Listen, I don't even know what this question is trying to resolve. Have I always been The Arrogant Puck? Probably, in some form or some way. But it all started about the time I was born and the nurse said, "That little arrogant puck." I have a question for you, did your life peak out sometime around the 6th grade, loser?
Q. Hey, Arrogant Puck you suck! But while you are here, can you tell me what you think of Alfredson? I have him in a keeper league, but he's getting up there in age.
A. It doesn't take a genius to see he's taken his game to another level. So why are you asking me this? Look, he's an all category stud - scores goals, assists, great +/-, SOGS, PIMS, SHP - what more do you want? I say take him and keep him, but start looking to the future to replace him with your other roster spots. However, if you can get an offer that is too good to be true, then you must trade Alfredsson while his value is so high. But I'm an Ottawa fan, so I hate to move him.
Q. Hey Arrogant Puck, why didn't you call me? You promised you would?
A. Ummm, next question.
Q. Where did you come from? This fantasy hockey site just appeared out of no where.
A. No it didn't. The material on this site, especially mine, previously existed in the hearts and minds of all hockey fans - moreso in the charismatic and attractive fans than the ugly and unpopular ones. I'm just a hired lacky, talk to Mr Fantasy Solution for a better explanation.
Q. Who is the Brett Favre of hockey?
A. That's a tough call. As a fellow cheesehead, Favre is one of my idols. We need to narrow it down to players who put it on the line, have an enormous amount of fun while playing, and have a high level of talent. My first thought was Brett Hull, but he's retired. I think Ovechkin could get there very soon, if he's not there yet. Ovechkin has the talent and seems to really enjoy his time on the ice. Most guys play way too seriously. If Sidney Crosby wasn't such a blowharded punk, he'd be the likely candidate, but he's always trashing the refs and other players with that mouth.
Q. Who should i keep in my 12th spot of my keeper (12 teams, 12 keepers, standard scoring with PIMs because of the ladies!) - Pominville, Lupul, or Guerin?
A. I can tell you who not to keep: Lupul! This kid is toast. And if you still want to follow your affections for him, he should be available in your draft. I'm leaning towards the Mayor of Pominville - it is a bit of a risk, but if he duplicates his #'s next season, you won't be sorry.
Q. Did Veronica Mars get cancelled?
A. What? Are you even on the right site?
Q. Why is your way the best way?
A. Because the other ways all suck. I will have the monkey type up a column shortly why certain fantasy hockey rules are better than others.
Ok folks, I'd like to say it has been fun. Also, I'd like to say to keep the questions coming, but in reality I'd rather not do this again.
Goodbye for now, The Arrogant Puck has left the arena.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Player Breakdown: Jordan Staal
Jordan Staal C/PIT This kid stunned us all last year, not only did he make the team he blew everyone away with his defensive play and goal scoring. Staal is 6' 4" and around 220 lbs. Put him on a line with Malkin and what team is going to be able to handle their size?
Staal has deceptive speed, amazing stride and a reach that surprises everyone. While he was counted on to be the lead penalty killer during 5 on 3 kills and 5 on 4 kills he was always looking to attack. He gave SHP league managers a pure monster that totaled 9 shps last season, 7 of them goals.
Staal admitted that the play of the NHL was too fast for him on offense and he could not see plays develop. With a full season under his belt you can bet the game will slow down for him next year. Look for his assist totals to equal his goal scoring next season. Staal should see increased time at LW next year with both Malkin and Crosby as his center. Also expect for him to see more power play time as well.
For his size Staal does not play with much of an edge, but at just 18 years old he has time to get more physical. This kid is not done growing, he will add more strength and muscle. Don't look for his PIM totals to see a big jump anytime soon.
Last seasons numbers were 29 goals, 13 assists for 42 points in 82 games. He was a +16 with 24 PIMs, 6 ppps, 9 shps and 4 GWG with 131 SOG.
Staal will score goals next season, have a solid +/- and will increase his SOG, assists, and ppps. We have not even scratched the surface on what this kid can do, and with the talent of his line mates the sky is the limit.
Staal has deceptive speed, amazing stride and a reach that surprises everyone. While he was counted on to be the lead penalty killer during 5 on 3 kills and 5 on 4 kills he was always looking to attack. He gave SHP league managers a pure monster that totaled 9 shps last season, 7 of them goals.
Staal admitted that the play of the NHL was too fast for him on offense and he could not see plays develop. With a full season under his belt you can bet the game will slow down for him next year. Look for his assist totals to equal his goal scoring next season. Staal should see increased time at LW next year with both Malkin and Crosby as his center. Also expect for him to see more power play time as well.
For his size Staal does not play with much of an edge, but at just 18 years old he has time to get more physical. This kid is not done growing, he will add more strength and muscle. Don't look for his PIM totals to see a big jump anytime soon.
Last seasons numbers were 29 goals, 13 assists for 42 points in 82 games. He was a +16 with 24 PIMs, 6 ppps, 9 shps and 4 GWG with 131 SOG.
Staal will score goals next season, have a solid +/- and will increase his SOG, assists, and ppps. We have not even scratched the surface on what this kid can do, and with the talent of his line mates the sky is the limit.
Player Breakdown: Nicklas Backstrom
Nicklas Backstrom C/WSH If this is the year Nicklas comes to the NHL we could see back to back seasons that leave people talking about Backstrom. While last season's version was in net the future will play with either Alexander Semin or Alexander Ovechkin on his wing. Throw in another sniper in Eric Fehr as a possible linemate and this kid looks to be a can't miss.
If all Jerry Rice did was catch touchdown passes, all this kid does is set up beautiful goals. Hailed as the next Peter Forsberg, this Swedish born player lacks the edge that Forsberg skates with but is a gifted passer and strong on his skates and hard to knock of the puck.
Backstrom is smooth and confident on his skates, but he lacks breakaway speed. He does not get many SOG and his release and accuracy need work. He does not back down from physical play, but he rarely goes looking for it. He is a decent penalty killer and improves in his own end with each year he plays.
Backstrom is going to be an assist machine, as I wrote in a Q&A reply I could see him being a 90 assist guy like Thornton. Especially when you consider all the snipers he will have to work with in Washington. He is not the all around fantasy stud like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin that we have seen bloom the last two years, but he will be a force on the power play and help your assist stats leap the standings. Plus, as he gets older he will become a better shooter and goal scorer. He should be considered early in all keeper leagues.
If all Jerry Rice did was catch touchdown passes, all this kid does is set up beautiful goals. Hailed as the next Peter Forsberg, this Swedish born player lacks the edge that Forsberg skates with but is a gifted passer and strong on his skates and hard to knock of the puck.
Backstrom is smooth and confident on his skates, but he lacks breakaway speed. He does not get many SOG and his release and accuracy need work. He does not back down from physical play, but he rarely goes looking for it. He is a decent penalty killer and improves in his own end with each year he plays.
Backstrom is going to be an assist machine, as I wrote in a Q&A reply I could see him being a 90 assist guy like Thornton. Especially when you consider all the snipers he will have to work with in Washington. He is not the all around fantasy stud like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin that we have seen bloom the last two years, but he will be a force on the power play and help your assist stats leap the standings. Plus, as he gets older he will become a better shooter and goal scorer. He should be considered early in all keeper leagues.
Player Breakdown: Jonathan Toews
Jonathan Toews C/CHI At 6'2" and almost 200 lbs he uses his frame extremely well along the boards, going to the front of the net and finishing his checks. He has proven he can put up points on every level he has played. He also has the ability to not only make plays but create space for his teammates. While he does not have blazing speed he is a strong and powerful skater. He processes tremendous vision on the ice and is as good in the defensive end as he is in the offensive.
Toews possesses great poise, leadership and passion. He is a student of the game and is always working to improve. He is just the type of leader the Blackhawk's franchise has been in need of. He is also very versatile being able to play either center or the wing.
It seems like an empty net goal that Toews will be in the NHL next season, and he deserves draft attention in all keeper leagues. While he might not make an impact in fantasy worthy of most standard roto leagues he could prove a difference maker down the stretch. He is certainly capable of putting up similar or better numbers than Kopitar did last season.
Chicago has been a tough town the last few years to mind fantasy gold from, but with Ruutu and Havlat to compliment Toews and the number one pick in this years draft the future looks bright. Toews could explode like Kopitar or Stastny or he could take a year or two to develop. Not only will Toews get the ice time and opportunity to put up massive points his rookie season, he should be a solid +/- player for a rookie who can rack up some PIMs. He is certainly worth a draft pick and a keeper league stud for years to come.
Toews possesses great poise, leadership and passion. He is a student of the game and is always working to improve. He is just the type of leader the Blackhawk's franchise has been in need of. He is also very versatile being able to play either center or the wing.
It seems like an empty net goal that Toews will be in the NHL next season, and he deserves draft attention in all keeper leagues. While he might not make an impact in fantasy worthy of most standard roto leagues he could prove a difference maker down the stretch. He is certainly capable of putting up similar or better numbers than Kopitar did last season.
Chicago has been a tough town the last few years to mind fantasy gold from, but with Ruutu and Havlat to compliment Toews and the number one pick in this years draft the future looks bright. Toews could explode like Kopitar or Stastny or he could take a year or two to develop. Not only will Toews get the ice time and opportunity to put up massive points his rookie season, he should be a solid +/- player for a rookie who can rack up some PIMs. He is certainly worth a draft pick and a keeper league stud for years to come.
Looking Toward the Future, Continued
Q & A continues...
Garth in Vancouver
PMB or Mikko for the Wild? I have both can only keep one.
Both Pierre-Marc Bouchard (PMB) and Mikko Koivu put up similar numbers last season. While I prefer that PMB is uually listed as C/RW in yahoo leagues I m going to have to go with Koivu. Koivu's game really bloomed last season while PMB did not reach the level MIN management was hoping for. Koivu is a threat short handed and could find himself playing with Gaborik more next season, which helps anyones fantasy value. PMB has more talent, and more upside but my gut says Koivu. Send me all your players, because I would prefer to not keep either!
Victor in Cali
I am in a 12 team keeper. Keep 18, standard scoring. I was offered Boyes and Lidstrom for my Perry. Should I take it?
To me this is basically do I take Boyes for Perry. Given Lidstrom's age I assume the guy wants to unload him and get younger. If you need keeper depth you could counter him to see what else he might give up. I love Boyes in STL but I would not move Perry for him. Don't do the deal. Defensive plug ins are easy to find, even though Lidstrom is a beast.
Alex
Points only keeper league G/A/GWG/PPPs/SOG/+/- we can keep 4. Spezza, Ovechkin, Kovolchuk, Lacalvier, St. Louis, Briere are my main guys. What 4 would you keep?
Touch call, I'd take Ovechkin, Lecavalier, Kovolchuk, Spezza. Love Briere and St. Louis but since its a keeper I went with the younger studs.
Brian in Philly
I am new to my buddies fantasy league. First year playing hockey and they said I had to pick last. Will I have any chance to in? Everytime I pick last in football I get killed.
Worry not Brian, I have built some of my strongest teams picking last. The nice thing is you do get back to back picks, and if you can snag a sleeper or two you are back in business. Just do some draft research and keep reading our site for ideas.
Tim
I like the site, always looking for more hockey reads, especially fantasy. Hope you keep it up! Is Bill Guerin going to have any value next season or is he too old?
Thanks a lot Tim. The plan in starting the site this far before next season was to build it up and get some good content on it to help people for the draft. We plan to keep it up for years and help people win fantasy pools.
We don't know where Guerin will sign next season, and he has taken a beating in the media. That said, I don't see many managers taking him early. He will likely drop in your league and if you have SOG and PIMs in your league he could be a late round steal. I think he will have value next year but much of it depends on where he signs. Keep checking in on the site and when Guerin signs we will do a breakdown.
John in Montreal
I love my Habs. So what Canadians do you see being my best fantasy targets next season?
Koivu is always up there as is Ryder, Plekanec and Higgins should both be improved and Kostitsyn could have a breakout season. I would not touch Kovalev.
Alex in DC
I loved watching Semin live last year. I was able to get him of the FA wire in my league. Will he repeat his stats next season?
Semin was a great fantasy story last season. While his history has never been strong with being consistent or a hard worker he showed he was ready to put that behind him last year. If healthy I see no reason why he won't put up good numbers next season. The Capitals should see the arrival of Backstrom to feed Semin or Ovechkin the puck 5 on 5 and certainly both on the power play. Fehr should be ready to step in full time in the NHL next year as well. The future is bright for the young Caps.
Hank in Nashville
PIM keeper league, because I am a man. I have Shanny but fear his age and health. Should I bail now and if so, what young forward could be like Shanny?
Real men use PIMs, thanks for the question. Shanahan is leaning toward a return next year and there is no reason to believe he won't be a fantasy monster again. His health is a minor concern but if you are in a keeper you might want to trade him next season if he starts out hot. Someone like Sean Avery or Brenden Morrow might be worth targeting as a replacement. I also like Scott hartnell for a goal scoring forward that gets solid PIMs.
Luke in Chicago
If the Hawks take Kane #1 in the draft will he play on a line with Toews and Havlat next season? If so, what will his value be?
A lot of" ifs" in that question, but I think its safe to say any player CHI drafts will have a chance to make the NHL squad next year. They need guys that can score and Kane could be that. I would not rush to draft anyone in standard leagues that is a rookie in Chicago. Take Radulov in Nashville last year. Great year from a super talented kid, but not a difference maker to help fantasy leagues. If its a keeper, certainly worth locking whoever Chicago takes #1 up for the future.
Garth in Vancouver
PMB or Mikko for the Wild? I have both can only keep one.
Both Pierre-Marc Bouchard (PMB) and Mikko Koivu put up similar numbers last season. While I prefer that PMB is uually listed as C/RW in yahoo leagues I m going to have to go with Koivu. Koivu's game really bloomed last season while PMB did not reach the level MIN management was hoping for. Koivu is a threat short handed and could find himself playing with Gaborik more next season, which helps anyones fantasy value. PMB has more talent, and more upside but my gut says Koivu. Send me all your players, because I would prefer to not keep either!
Victor in Cali
I am in a 12 team keeper. Keep 18, standard scoring. I was offered Boyes and Lidstrom for my Perry. Should I take it?
To me this is basically do I take Boyes for Perry. Given Lidstrom's age I assume the guy wants to unload him and get younger. If you need keeper depth you could counter him to see what else he might give up. I love Boyes in STL but I would not move Perry for him. Don't do the deal. Defensive plug ins are easy to find, even though Lidstrom is a beast.
Alex
Points only keeper league G/A/GWG/PPPs/SOG/+/- we can keep 4. Spezza, Ovechkin, Kovolchuk, Lacalvier, St. Louis, Briere are my main guys. What 4 would you keep?
Touch call, I'd take Ovechkin, Lecavalier, Kovolchuk, Spezza. Love Briere and St. Louis but since its a keeper I went with the younger studs.
Brian in Philly
I am new to my buddies fantasy league. First year playing hockey and they said I had to pick last. Will I have any chance to in? Everytime I pick last in football I get killed.
Worry not Brian, I have built some of my strongest teams picking last. The nice thing is you do get back to back picks, and if you can snag a sleeper or two you are back in business. Just do some draft research and keep reading our site for ideas.
Tim
I like the site, always looking for more hockey reads, especially fantasy. Hope you keep it up! Is Bill Guerin going to have any value next season or is he too old?
Thanks a lot Tim. The plan in starting the site this far before next season was to build it up and get some good content on it to help people for the draft. We plan to keep it up for years and help people win fantasy pools.
We don't know where Guerin will sign next season, and he has taken a beating in the media. That said, I don't see many managers taking him early. He will likely drop in your league and if you have SOG and PIMs in your league he could be a late round steal. I think he will have value next year but much of it depends on where he signs. Keep checking in on the site and when Guerin signs we will do a breakdown.
John in Montreal
I love my Habs. So what Canadians do you see being my best fantasy targets next season?
Koivu is always up there as is Ryder, Plekanec and Higgins should both be improved and Kostitsyn could have a breakout season. I would not touch Kovalev.
Alex in DC
I loved watching Semin live last year. I was able to get him of the FA wire in my league. Will he repeat his stats next season?
Semin was a great fantasy story last season. While his history has never been strong with being consistent or a hard worker he showed he was ready to put that behind him last year. If healthy I see no reason why he won't put up good numbers next season. The Capitals should see the arrival of Backstrom to feed Semin or Ovechkin the puck 5 on 5 and certainly both on the power play. Fehr should be ready to step in full time in the NHL next year as well. The future is bright for the young Caps.
Hank in Nashville
PIM keeper league, because I am a man. I have Shanny but fear his age and health. Should I bail now and if so, what young forward could be like Shanny?
Real men use PIMs, thanks for the question. Shanahan is leaning toward a return next year and there is no reason to believe he won't be a fantasy monster again. His health is a minor concern but if you are in a keeper you might want to trade him next season if he starts out hot. Someone like Sean Avery or Brenden Morrow might be worth targeting as a replacement. I also like Scott hartnell for a goal scoring forward that gets solid PIMs.
Luke in Chicago
If the Hawks take Kane #1 in the draft will he play on a line with Toews and Havlat next season? If so, what will his value be?
A lot of" ifs" in that question, but I think its safe to say any player CHI drafts will have a chance to make the NHL squad next year. They need guys that can score and Kane could be that. I would not rush to draft anyone in standard leagues that is a rookie in Chicago. Take Radulov in Nashville last year. Great year from a super talented kid, but not a difference maker to help fantasy leagues. If its a keeper, certainly worth locking whoever Chicago takes #1 up for the future.
Looking Toward the Future
The bulk of questions I have received so far seem to be about young talent and keeper leagues. Makes sense since this is the summer off season. Good managers are always scouting the new kids coming into the league and looking to rebuild or keep their tams strong by snagging the next big thing. I have let the questions back up some, so I will post them as I answer them, so if you don't see yours in the batch yet, please check back as I will be adding them throughout the day.
Bobby asked:
Hey, just stumbled on your site. Nice work.
At some point could you compare and contrast - Toews, Backstrom (not the goalie), and Jordan Staal?
I'm in a standard keeper league, roto style.
All three of those young studs seem like a can't miss if you can land one. Given the hype around the three it will be interesting to see where managers snag them in the draft. But as with any highly hyped young talent, it sometimes takes years for them to find their place in the NHL, though Staal has all ready fit in very nicely both in real life and fantasy.
Jonathan Toews C/CHI A powerful skater with good speed and size, he is as good on the defensive side of the puck as he is on the offensive and is versatile enough to play wing as well as center. Many felt he should have been in the NHL last season. Toews has shown he can play in international competition and hold up against the best. If Havlat is healthy for CHI next season they could be a deadly combination. Toews should be a solid +/- player but until we see him skate in the NHL it is hard to predict what his point totals will be. He has the ability to create space on the ice and deliver great passes and he is not affraid to go to the net. I think Toews will be capable of putting up 60 pts right out of the gate and of the three, he plays with the most edge so that could lead to some decent PIMs to go with his points. With any young player it could take him a couple years to develop. Especially in CHI which seems to have a curse over it. In a keeper league though, this kid looks to be a can't miss and a stud for years to come. So if you take him next season and he struggles, don't panic, he will get there.
Nicklas Backstrom C/WSH No players coming into the NHL have the vision or passing ability to rival Backstrom. Being from Sweden the comparison's to Forsberg are easily thrown around. Forsberg is my all time favorite so I feel I can comfortably say he is not going to be Forsberg. But he can set up plays like Forsberg and protect the puck, he is strong on his skates and will only get stronger as he continues to grow. With players like Ovechkin, Semin, and Fehr in WSH, Backstrom will have no lack of finishers to pass the puck to. Backstrom loves to set up plays, especially on the power play. He makes risky passes and plays that could lead to some shaky +/- stats to start his NHL career, but that should not be an issue for long as he adapts to the North American game. Backstrom is the real deal, but he is not a goal scorer and will never post huge SOG totals. Backstrom putting up 90 assists like Joe Thornton would not be a surprise.
Jordan Staal C-LW/PIT it seems likely that PIT will be using Staal a lot on LW to Malkin and maybe Crosby as well. PIT likes to juggle the lines but no matter where he ends up the kid can finish and he won't hurt your +/-. Staal himself admitted the game moved to fast for him last year. He said he had problems seeing plays develop and setting up plays. Make no mistake, once he starts to be able to make some passes he will have finishers on the other end. Look for Staal's assist totals to rise next year. Staal was a stud short handed and is a force in SHP leagues. While big and strong he does not have much of an edge to his game, so PIM totals will be low. Due to his size he and Malkin will be impossible for teams to handle 5 on 5. Staal's SOG, assists, and goals should all go up next season and I also think he will get more time on the power play. Staal, like Backstrom has superstar talent to play with, and thats never hurt anyones fantasy value.
While I don't like centers as a rule, these three are all solid. If I had to rank them, I like goal scores. Why? Because a goal can get you the most categories and assists are easier to manage for. I would rank them Staal, Backstrom and Toews. Toews could prove to be like Parise and a solid goal scorer who can set up plays, but at center I can make up for his production if I miss him in the draft, especially with Ruutu still in CHI. Backstrom is going to be a fantasy monster (assuming he plays in the NHL next year) with the players he will have around him in WSH. However, he is going to be a PPP and assist monster. Until he develops the ability to shoot more and score more goals I prefer Staal. I prefer Staal because at 18 he shocked the NHL and it was no fluke, while backstrom has one world class player to skate with in WSH(no disrespect to Semin) Staal has two in PIT. Backstrom could end up the best player of the three, but I have seen too many hyped great passers at center come into the NHL and just be average. Until I see what he can do at the NHL level I prefer Staal who has proven what he can do and will only get better. If you can land any of the three in a keeper you will be looking good.
Bobby asked:
Hey, just stumbled on your site. Nice work.
At some point could you compare and contrast - Toews, Backstrom (not the goalie), and Jordan Staal?
I'm in a standard keeper league, roto style.
All three of those young studs seem like a can't miss if you can land one. Given the hype around the three it will be interesting to see where managers snag them in the draft. But as with any highly hyped young talent, it sometimes takes years for them to find their place in the NHL, though Staal has all ready fit in very nicely both in real life and fantasy.
Jonathan Toews C/CHI A powerful skater with good speed and size, he is as good on the defensive side of the puck as he is on the offensive and is versatile enough to play wing as well as center. Many felt he should have been in the NHL last season. Toews has shown he can play in international competition and hold up against the best. If Havlat is healthy for CHI next season they could be a deadly combination. Toews should be a solid +/- player but until we see him skate in the NHL it is hard to predict what his point totals will be. He has the ability to create space on the ice and deliver great passes and he is not affraid to go to the net. I think Toews will be capable of putting up 60 pts right out of the gate and of the three, he plays with the most edge so that could lead to some decent PIMs to go with his points. With any young player it could take him a couple years to develop. Especially in CHI which seems to have a curse over it. In a keeper league though, this kid looks to be a can't miss and a stud for years to come. So if you take him next season and he struggles, don't panic, he will get there.
Nicklas Backstrom C/WSH No players coming into the NHL have the vision or passing ability to rival Backstrom. Being from Sweden the comparison's to Forsberg are easily thrown around. Forsberg is my all time favorite so I feel I can comfortably say he is not going to be Forsberg. But he can set up plays like Forsberg and protect the puck, he is strong on his skates and will only get stronger as he continues to grow. With players like Ovechkin, Semin, and Fehr in WSH, Backstrom will have no lack of finishers to pass the puck to. Backstrom loves to set up plays, especially on the power play. He makes risky passes and plays that could lead to some shaky +/- stats to start his NHL career, but that should not be an issue for long as he adapts to the North American game. Backstrom is the real deal, but he is not a goal scorer and will never post huge SOG totals. Backstrom putting up 90 assists like Joe Thornton would not be a surprise.
Jordan Staal C-LW/PIT it seems likely that PIT will be using Staal a lot on LW to Malkin and maybe Crosby as well. PIT likes to juggle the lines but no matter where he ends up the kid can finish and he won't hurt your +/-. Staal himself admitted the game moved to fast for him last year. He said he had problems seeing plays develop and setting up plays. Make no mistake, once he starts to be able to make some passes he will have finishers on the other end. Look for Staal's assist totals to rise next year. Staal was a stud short handed and is a force in SHP leagues. While big and strong he does not have much of an edge to his game, so PIM totals will be low. Due to his size he and Malkin will be impossible for teams to handle 5 on 5. Staal's SOG, assists, and goals should all go up next season and I also think he will get more time on the power play. Staal, like Backstrom has superstar talent to play with, and thats never hurt anyones fantasy value.
While I don't like centers as a rule, these three are all solid. If I had to rank them, I like goal scores. Why? Because a goal can get you the most categories and assists are easier to manage for. I would rank them Staal, Backstrom and Toews. Toews could prove to be like Parise and a solid goal scorer who can set up plays, but at center I can make up for his production if I miss him in the draft, especially with Ruutu still in CHI. Backstrom is going to be a fantasy monster (assuming he plays in the NHL next year) with the players he will have around him in WSH. However, he is going to be a PPP and assist monster. Until he develops the ability to shoot more and score more goals I prefer Staal. I prefer Staal because at 18 he shocked the NHL and it was no fluke, while backstrom has one world class player to skate with in WSH(no disrespect to Semin) Staal has two in PIT. Backstrom could end up the best player of the three, but I have seen too many hyped great passers at center come into the NHL and just be average. Until I see what he can do at the NHL level I prefer Staal who has proven what he can do and will only get better. If you can land any of the three in a keeper you will be looking good.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Monday, May 14, 2007
I'm a Goal Man
"I'm a Goal Man!"
by
The Arrogant Puck
Hey --listen up hosers!
Way back in the day, my alumni pep band used to play 'Soul Man' during our hockey games. Now, I never really understood exactly why this was a hockey song, and I really didn't have time to ask the band leaders since I was too busy banging their chicks. In case you didn't know, trombonists have ALL the fun! Ok, now that you've learned another life's lesson, let's move on to hockey stats. When it comes to fantasy hockey, goals are everything. Take a look at the playoff goal leaders so far this season (thru Sunday's games):
What do these stats tell us? Well first off all, Tampa Bay had no offensive reason to lose the first round, unless you find Tortella's treatment of goaltending offensive. Lecavalier and St. Louis were on fire and carried over their hot play from the regular season into the playoffs. Can someone please find them a goaltender?
Also of special note is how well Alfredsson has turned over his normal playoff fortune. He has not disappeared this year, and if Ottawa goes on to win this thing, he's the hands down MVP this year. He's not only scoring, but backchecking, and even hitting guys from behind. No one can question his mental fortitude this year.
As I wrote in my column last week, now is the time to sell Chris Drury. He's scored 7 Goals in 13 games - his stock will never be worth more than it is right now. He certainly has been Mr. Clutch for Buffalo this year in the playoffs.
It appears that Babcock has told his aces to shoot the puck and then shoot it some more. Both Datsyuk and Zetterberg have a high number of shots, but Zetts seems to be a bit frustrated on the goal scoring count. If he continues to keep shooting at this pace, I expect more goals to follow.
Maybe something more amazing than who is on this list, is who is not on this list. Where did the Finnish Flash go? Anaheim is in big trouble if their 2nd best goal scorer continues to be Travis Moen. Moen and McDonald cannot continue to carry this team forever.
Jagr continues to have a terrible shooting %. He notched a 9% in the regular season, and continued with an anemic 10% in the playoffs. I expect that trend to correct itself next season, when the new and revived Jagr hits the ice. If Nylander signs again in NY, which would be a huge shocker if it didn't occur, I expect both of these players to have great season next year.
Nylander is the kind of guy I usually stay away from since all he seems to get are assists and very few PIMs. He's a great scorer, but look at that juicy 0 PIM stat even in the playoffs. What, can't you even hook someone?
The biggest shock to me on this list is JP Dumont. Nashville certainly didn't lose because of him.
That's it for now,
The Arrogant Puck has left the arena.
Trades in Fantasy Hockey
I make more moves and trade more than any manager I have come across. I had over 26 trades and 1,019 wire moves last season in my keeper. Obviously we don't have move limits and it was a H2H with daily changes. Ideal for playing those match ups each night.
That said, where does Trading fit into fantasy? Is it necessary? What should I offer in deals? All common questions for new fantasy players to hockey and even some who have a few years under their belts.
Many managers hate to trade. Why? Some fear they will get screwed, some just don't like dealing with the hassle or negotiating and some feel they play the team they draft. There are many reasons that managers won't trade or ignore your offers.
Should you trade? This is not easily answered, it depends on your personal style and the league you are in. If you have a deep league, especially a keeper then trading might be the only way to land your favorite players if they got snagged in the draft. In shallow leagues you often have to overpay to land the player you want so it might be more fun to play match ups or ride the hot guy on your FA wire. I think trades add an interesting element to leagues and keep interest going year round.
Rules and Strategies for Trades:
Strategy: One of the things I love to do is add a player from the FA list and then try to trade him while he is hot. This works extremely well with goalies. Managers always panic over goalies and its easy to get them to bite.
Rule: if you want Dany Heatly don't offer the manager that has him Ryder and Axelsson. Its always wise to see what you can get for cheap but remember, if you insult the manager too badly you might get ignored for good.
Rule: Don't try to screw people and trade a guy the night you see him get injured. Don't try to take advantage of a manager who is new. If you play with the same guys each year, or most of the same guys then you build a bad rep and won't be able to get legit trades you want. (If you are playing in public open leagues and don't know anyone, have fun and do whatever you want!)
Rule: if you get an offer thats too good to be true, it probably is. Be sure to research all your trade offers. Check out some of the sites linked on our main page and see if the players offered are hurt. You want to look into each trade before you click accept. You can always ask us to breakdown your offers and trades as well.
Rule: If you make an offer for someones first round pick, it might take your first round pick + to land him or your 2nd plus. Managers take players in the first round they tend to love and it costs a lot to move them.
Strategy: If you are in a keeper league, use draft picks in your offers. If you are contending for a title and want to load up, move some picks for vets. Teams outside of your playoffs might look to unload talent to rebuild next season.
Strategy: If there is a player you really want, make more than one offer for him. This tool works very well when dealing with a manager who does not like to counter or may not have time to look over your team. The key is to give them options without making the other offers look to weak. You can make 3 weak offers and a really good 4th one though to give the appearance they should take the good offer.
Rule: Always try to make an offer that benefits both teams. Address another teams needs in your offer. If they are loaded with Right Wings, don't offer your RW for his RW. Offer them a solid Dman or a goalie, or a LW. Try to make them stronger or give the appearance you are not just out to help "you". This will get more deals done faster and help your trading reputation. If a guy is leading the league in goals but needs PIMs and wins in net don't offer him Ovechkin for his goalie + Sean Avery.
Trading is a great way to keep interest levels up, I love to receive and send offers. I traded Havlat and Marian Hossa last season for Ovechkin(the #1 overall pick in our draft) in my keeper league. Don't be affraid to pay a little extra for guys that will be super studs down the road or make offers for "untouchable" players. Take a gamble and have some fun with it, you never know...
That said, where does Trading fit into fantasy? Is it necessary? What should I offer in deals? All common questions for new fantasy players to hockey and even some who have a few years under their belts.
Many managers hate to trade. Why? Some fear they will get screwed, some just don't like dealing with the hassle or negotiating and some feel they play the team they draft. There are many reasons that managers won't trade or ignore your offers.
Should you trade? This is not easily answered, it depends on your personal style and the league you are in. If you have a deep league, especially a keeper then trading might be the only way to land your favorite players if they got snagged in the draft. In shallow leagues you often have to overpay to land the player you want so it might be more fun to play match ups or ride the hot guy on your FA wire. I think trades add an interesting element to leagues and keep interest going year round.
Rules and Strategies for Trades:
Strategy: One of the things I love to do is add a player from the FA list and then try to trade him while he is hot. This works extremely well with goalies. Managers always panic over goalies and its easy to get them to bite.
Rule: if you want Dany Heatly don't offer the manager that has him Ryder and Axelsson. Its always wise to see what you can get for cheap but remember, if you insult the manager too badly you might get ignored for good.
Rule: Don't try to screw people and trade a guy the night you see him get injured. Don't try to take advantage of a manager who is new. If you play with the same guys each year, or most of the same guys then you build a bad rep and won't be able to get legit trades you want. (If you are playing in public open leagues and don't know anyone, have fun and do whatever you want!)
Rule: if you get an offer thats too good to be true, it probably is. Be sure to research all your trade offers. Check out some of the sites linked on our main page and see if the players offered are hurt. You want to look into each trade before you click accept. You can always ask us to breakdown your offers and trades as well.
Rule: If you make an offer for someones first round pick, it might take your first round pick + to land him or your 2nd plus. Managers take players in the first round they tend to love and it costs a lot to move them.
Strategy: If you are in a keeper league, use draft picks in your offers. If you are contending for a title and want to load up, move some picks for vets. Teams outside of your playoffs might look to unload talent to rebuild next season.
Strategy: If there is a player you really want, make more than one offer for him. This tool works very well when dealing with a manager who does not like to counter or may not have time to look over your team. The key is to give them options without making the other offers look to weak. You can make 3 weak offers and a really good 4th one though to give the appearance they should take the good offer.
Rule: Always try to make an offer that benefits both teams. Address another teams needs in your offer. If they are loaded with Right Wings, don't offer your RW for his RW. Offer them a solid Dman or a goalie, or a LW. Try to make them stronger or give the appearance you are not just out to help "you". This will get more deals done faster and help your trading reputation. If a guy is leading the league in goals but needs PIMs and wins in net don't offer him Ovechkin for his goalie + Sean Avery.
Trading is a great way to keep interest levels up, I love to receive and send offers. I traded Havlat and Marian Hossa last season for Ovechkin(the #1 overall pick in our draft) in my keeper league. Don't be affraid to pay a little extra for guys that will be super studs down the road or make offers for "untouchable" players. Take a gamble and have some fun with it, you never know...
Player Breakdown: Francois Beauchemin
Francois Beauchemin D/ANH was flat out stolen from Columbus by Anaheim in 05-06 for Sergei Fedorov. Granted this was more of a great move in real life than it was fantasy, but lets breakdown Beauchemin.
Many managers took this guy in middle and late rounds last year based on his rank and what he did in ANH after the trade. Those managers must have not read all the warnings about his PP time being killed with the Pronger deal. He was a drop and on almost all FA wires in fantasy after a while.
Even though Beauchemin did not breakout like many had hoped, he had a stable season on the blue line. I used him many times via add/drop for key match ups when Pronger or Niedermayer got injured. That was the key last season and for the future. If one of the big two get hurt, Beauchemin's fantasy value will rise.
With 7 goals 21 assists for 28pts in 71 games played, Beauchemin also added 49 PIMs was a +7 and had a 128 shots on goal coming up with 13 power play points. Thats basically the same numbers he put up the year before in ANH in 61 games.
While Beauchemin is not worth a look in point only pools or shallow leagues, he is worth a bench spot or keeping an eye on in your FA wire in deep leagues. If he gets power play time due to injury or resting of the top 2 Dmen in ANH his fantasy value could rise greatly.
Beauchemin has above average power from the blue line with his shot and showed great offensive instincts playing with Niedermayer his first year in ANH and again last year knowing when to pinch in and go to the front of the net. ANH tried to bring in more traditionally offensive blue liners like Ric Jackman but they didn't pan out. Look for Beauchemin to be given more of a green light to score next year if ANH has to spend any time without Niedermayer or Pronger. He also plays with a nasty side and is not affraid to drop the gloves.
Another thing to keep in mind if you use Beauchemin in your H2H is that he scores most of his points at home, and very little on the road.
He could be a good filler option or bloom into a solid PT/PIM Dman. Keep an eye on him!
Many managers took this guy in middle and late rounds last year based on his rank and what he did in ANH after the trade. Those managers must have not read all the warnings about his PP time being killed with the Pronger deal. He was a drop and on almost all FA wires in fantasy after a while.
Even though Beauchemin did not breakout like many had hoped, he had a stable season on the blue line. I used him many times via add/drop for key match ups when Pronger or Niedermayer got injured. That was the key last season and for the future. If one of the big two get hurt, Beauchemin's fantasy value will rise.
With 7 goals 21 assists for 28pts in 71 games played, Beauchemin also added 49 PIMs was a +7 and had a 128 shots on goal coming up with 13 power play points. Thats basically the same numbers he put up the year before in ANH in 61 games.
While Beauchemin is not worth a look in point only pools or shallow leagues, he is worth a bench spot or keeping an eye on in your FA wire in deep leagues. If he gets power play time due to injury or resting of the top 2 Dmen in ANH his fantasy value could rise greatly.
Beauchemin has above average power from the blue line with his shot and showed great offensive instincts playing with Niedermayer his first year in ANH and again last year knowing when to pinch in and go to the front of the net. ANH tried to bring in more traditionally offensive blue liners like Ric Jackman but they didn't pan out. Look for Beauchemin to be given more of a green light to score next year if ANH has to spend any time without Niedermayer or Pronger. He also plays with a nasty side and is not affraid to drop the gloves.
Another thing to keep in mind if you use Beauchemin in your H2H is that he scores most of his points at home, and very little on the road.
He could be a good filler option or bloom into a solid PT/PIM Dman. Keep an eye on him!
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Starting Goalies 5/13/07
Giguere ANH vs Hasek DET
in season we will be adding who is home and who is away, and their overall career records vs their opponents.
in season we will be adding who is home and who is away, and their overall career records vs their opponents.
Abbreviations
Throughout the posts on this site you will see many abbreviations that are common to fantasy hockey stats.
For those of you not as familiar with fantasy hockey or who may be planning to play for the first time I will list the various abbreviations we use here and what they mean.
G - goals
A - assists
PTS - points
+/- a players plus minus
PPP - power play point or PPPs for power play points
SHP/SHG - short handed point/short handed goal
SOG - shots on goal
PIM - penalty minutes
TOI - time on ice
GWG - game winning goal
GAA - goals against average
SV% - save percentage
SO - shut out
W - wins
I hope this helps. If you see any that I didn't think to cover just E-mail me and I will tell you what it means and add it to this list.
For those of you not as familiar with fantasy hockey or who may be planning to play for the first time I will list the various abbreviations we use here and what they mean.
G - goals
A - assists
PTS - points
+/- a players plus minus
PPP - power play point or PPPs for power play points
SHP/SHG - short handed point/short handed goal
SOG - shots on goal
PIM - penalty minutes
TOI - time on ice
GWG - game winning goal
GAA - goals against average
SV% - save percentage
SO - shut out
W - wins
I hope this helps. If you see any that I didn't think to cover just E-mail me and I will tell you what it means and add it to this list.
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